Anatomy Of A Final Four Team

 Picking the national champion is always the key to winning your bracket pool but just as crucial is nailing the Final Four teams as well. I have correctly selected 14 of the past 16 Final Four teams and looking good so far this season. Refer to this all season for updates on the teams which qualify for all these trends! 

PICKING FINAL FOUR 


  1. Of the last 28 final four teams, 22 were either regular season champions or won their conference tournament.


2026: Those not reaching either threshold include: Illinois, Houston, Iowa State, Michigan State, UCONN, Nebraska, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Alabama, Louisville, Kansas, BYU. Virginia, Wisconsin, Texas Tech, St. Mary’s, and Iowa. 


  1. Since 2003, 75 of 88 (85.2 %) final four teams were ranked in the top 20 overall of KenPom going into the tournament.


2026: Prime contenders not included here are: Kansas, BYU, Wisconsin, St. Mary’s, Iowa, Kentucky, UCLA, Miami Fla., Utah State, Ohio State. 


  1. Since 2003, 60 of 88 (68.1) final four teams were in the top 20 of adjusted offense before the tournament. If we make it top 30, it goes to 68 of 88 (77.2). Going even further, 79 of 88 (89.7)  were in the top 50 in adjusted offense going into the tournament. 


2026: Using top 30 as the benchmark, this eliminates Nebraska, Tennessee, Kansas, St. John’s, St. Mary’s, Iowa, Kentucky, Ohio State, Miami Fla., North Carolina, Clemson, Texas A@M, and VCU. 


  1. ATS RECORD: From 2008 through 2025, 49/60 final four teams had a winning ATS record.


Losing ATS Record Going Into Tournament: Michigan, Houston, Purdue, Michigan State, UCONN, Tennessee, Alabama, Louisville, BYU, Texas Tech. 


  1. EXTREME TEAMS: Since 2002, there have been 169 extreme teams where they rank inside the top ten in KenPom adjusted offense OR defense and outside the top 50 in the OTHER. Only 5 of the 169 have reached the final four and only 16 have reached the elite eight. 


2026: Alabama 3 (O) 67 (D)

BYU 10 (O) 57 (D)

Nebraska 55 (O) 7 (D)

Kansas 57 (O) 10 (D) 


  1. BEGINNING SEASON UNRANKED: Out of a possible 37 teams who began the season unranked but then earned a top two seed in the tournament, not ONE made the final four.

2026: NONE


  1. In the last 18 tournaments, 84 percent of the final four teams won at least 24 games going in.


2026: Those with less than 24 wins going into the tournament: Tennessee,    Alabama, Louisville, Kansas, BYU, Texas Tech, Iowa. 


  1. 41 of the last 52 final four teams were within the top 100 in FG percentage going into the tournament.


2026: Less than tp 100 in FG percentage going in include: Houston, Tennessee, Kansas, St. John’s, St. Mary’s. 


  1. BEGINNING SEASON UNRANKED BUT FINISHING TOP TEN: Since 1985, 46 teams teams entered the season unranked but entered the tournament top 10. Zero made the final four.


2026: Ladies and gentleman we bring you: Virginia! 


  1. NOT WINNING A CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT GAME: Since 2010, 100 teams have received an at-large bid after losing their only conference tournament game. Only 5 of the 100 reached the final four.


2026: Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Alabama, Texas Tech. 


  1. Since 2014, 38 of the 44 final four teams have shot at least 35 percent from three. Meanwhile, 69/72 shot at least 33 percent from three.


2026: Those who failed to shoot at least 35 percent from three include: Illinois, Florida, Gonzaga, Tennessee, St. John’s, BYU, TCU, Georgia, Clemson, Kentucky, North Carolina, San Diego State, and, Miami Fla.

Those who failed to hit 33 percent include: Florida.

  1. Since 1997, only one team has reached even the Sweet 16 when more than half their shots were threes. 


2026: This season, Alabama, Louisville, Wisconsin, and Illinois were all above this threshold.  


  1. Using the BartTorvik system, 60 of the last 68 Final Four teams began the tournament top 50 in adjusted offense.


2026: Those who failed to meet this threshold include: Nebraska, Kansas, and Clemson


  1. Using BartTorvik, 63 of the last 68 Final Four teams began the tournament top 75 in adjusted defense.


2026: Those who failed to meet this threshold include: BYU.


  1. Using BartTorvik, 64 of the last 68 Final Four teams began the tournament top 175 in effective field goal percentage.


2026: Those who failed to meet this threshold include: St. John’s.


TOTALS:


****All categories tallied up and then subtractions of one were made for each of the following: Extreme Teams, Top Ten For Tourney After Starting Season Unranked Via AP Poll, and Taking More Than Half Of A Team’s Shorts From Three Point Land.


13-Duke, Arizona, Arkansas

12-Michigan, Florida, Purdue, Gonzaga, Vanderbilt

11-Iowa State, UCONN, Virginia (12-1=11)

10-Houston, Illinois (11-1=10), Michigan State, Louisville (11-1=10)

9-Texas Tech, St. Mary’s, Iowa, Wisconsin (10-1=9), St. John’s, Utah State

8-Nebraska (9-1=8), BYU (9-1=8), St. Louis

7-Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio State, UCLA, Miami Fla., Clemson, VCU

6-Kansas (7-1=6), Alabama (8-2=6), North Carolina, Texas A@M, San Diego State

5-Georgia

4-Missouri


Right off the bat, throw out Alabama (extreme team, and more than half their shots are threes), Virginia (preseason unranked but top ten for tourney), Louisville (same as Alabama with the threes), Illinois (same as Louisville and Alabama with the threes), Nebraska (extreme team), Kansas (extreme team), and BYU (extreme team) as each are trying to buck overwhelming odds of getting to the Final Four. If they make it somehow then so be it, 


As we established in the national champions portion; Duke and Arizona are almost automatic inclusions for the Final Four, Focus in on Arkansas as a non-conforming addition and also Purdue comes in red hot as a two seed to further break up the unlikelihood of four number one seeds again reaching the Final Four. Michigan and Florida can easily still get there and the Final Four metrics back this up. Finally, I will consider Iowa State, Houston, and St. John’s as my remaining Final Four choices. 

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